Bitcoin · cycle valuation
BTC Bottom & Top Indicator
One score for where Bitcoin sits in its market cycle — the average of 13 two-sided on-chain, miner, and price signals, each ranked against its own entire history. 0 = past bottoms, 100 = past tops. Three one-sided trigger signals watch each extreme separately below.
Bottom · AccumulateTop · Distribute
Leaning cheap. At 21/100, Bitcoin is in the Value zone — priced below where it traded on about 79% of its history. Historically closer to accumulation than distribution.
9/ 13 signals reading ValueBTC $64,171close Jul 16
4 Deep Value9 Value· 13 signals total
How to read this: the needle sits on a 0–100 cycle scale — left (green) = historically cheap, where past bottoms lived; right (red) = historically expensive, where past tops lived. Each of the 13 two-sided signals is ranked against its own full history and averaged, so today's 21 means BTC is cheaper than roughly 79% of its entire trading history. The watch panels below count how many signals sit at each extreme; one-sided triggers only ever count toward their own end. Not financial advice.
Bottom & top watch
signals at each extreme · trigger crosses at ratio 1.00Bottom watch
5 / 15signals in the historic-bottom zone (score < 20)
SOPRReserve RiskLong-Term Holder MVRV200-Week MA RatioPi Cycle Bottom
Specialist triggers · only fire at bottoms
Hash Ribbonsratio 1.00 · fires at ≤ 1.00 · Triggered
Pi Cycle Bottomratio 1.05 · fires at ≤ 1.00 · Close
Top watch
0 / 14signals in the historic-top zone (score ≥ 80)
none — no signal is at this extreme right now
Specialist trigger · only fires at tops
Pi Cycle Topratio 0.40 · fires at ≥ 1.00 · Quiet
The signals
ranked 0 = historic bottom · 100 = historic topValuation · On-chain
on-chain value — undervalued
avg 22Value
MVRV Z-ScoreValue
Market cap vs realized cap in standard deviations. Deep lows marked historic bottoms; extremes above ~7 marked every major top.
22
0
MVRV RatioValue
Market value / realized value. Below ~1 the average holder is underwater; above ~3.5 is historically overheated.
20
▼ 1
Net Unrealized P/L (NUPL)Value
Share of supply sitting in profit. Negative = capitulation; above ~0.75 = the euphoria zone of past tops.
20
▼ 1
SOPRDeep Value
Spent-output profit ratio. Sustained sub-1 = coins selling at a loss; persistently rich = heavy profit-taking near tops.
13
▼ 5
Reserve RiskDeep Value
Long-term-holder conviction vs price. Lows flag attractive risk/reward; highs flag late-cycle complacency.
9
▼ 2
Short-Term Holder MVRVValue
Cost-basis ratio of recent buyers. Deep lows = fresh money underwater; extremes = new buyers sitting on top-heavy gains.
35
▲ 12
Long-Term Holder MVRVDeep Value
Cost-basis ratio of seasoned holders. Lows accompany bear-market bottoms; extremes accompany distribution tops.
19
▼ 1
RHODL RatioValue
Realized-cap HODL waves (1-week vs 1–2-year bands). Lows = speculation flushed out; highs = froth at cycle peaks.
37
▲ 8
Miner stress
miners — undervalued
avg 20Value
Puell MultipleValue
Daily miner issuance in USD vs its yearly average. Sub-0.5 marked every cycle low; above ~4 marked blow-off tops.
20
▼ 4
Hash Ribbonsbottom-onlyValue
30-day vs 60-day hashrate momentum. Dips below 1 mark miner-capitulation bottoms; says nothing about tops.
23
▲ 8
Price & trend models
price vs models — deeply cheap
avg 19Deep Value
Realized PriceValue
Aggregate on-chain cost basis. Spot below it = the market underwater; spot far above it = historically stretched.
20
▼ 1
Balanced PriceValue
Realized minus transferred price. Spot near it marked cycle bottoms; a large premium marked late-cycle heat.
21
▼ 2
Mayer MultipleValue
Price vs its 200-day average. Readings near 0.5 marked deep bottoms; above ~2.4 marked overheated tops.
25
▲ 3
200-Week MA RatioDeep Value
Price vs its 200-week average — the line macro bottoms touch; multiples of ~3+ accompanied past tops.
8
▼ 2
Pi Cycle Bottombottom-onlyDeep Value
150-day EMA vs 0.745× the 471-day average. Ratios near/below 1 have pinned cycle lows; says nothing about tops.
13
▼ 3
Pi Cycle Toptop-onlyDeep Value
111-day MA vs 2× the 350-day MA. The upward cross of 1 called the 2013, 2017 and 2021 tops within days.
17
▲ 3