Where are we in the cycle?
The time dimension: how far this cycle has run against the last three, how deep the drawdown is compared with past bear-market floors, and which months have historically carried the lows.
Timing charts
this cycle against the last three · hover for valuesWhere are we in the 4-year cycle?
Each cycle starts at its bear-market low and is drawn on the same day axis. The last two cycles bottomed again on day 1431 and day 1437; today is day 1380 of this one (peak was day 1050). The shaded window marks where the prior lows landed. Switch to the halving view to count from the 2024 halving instead.
- 2011 cycle
- 2015 cycle
- 2018 cycle
- 2022 cycle (now)
Cycle & halving tables
| Cycle | Low | Peak | Peak day | Peak ROI | Next low | Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 cycle | Nov 2011 · $2.55 | Dec 2013 · $1.14k | 748 | 446× | day 1153 | -80% |
| 2015 cycle | Jan 2015 · $222 | Dec 2017 · $19.3k | 1068 | 87× | day 1431 | -83% |
| 2018 cycle | Dec 2018 · $3.24k | Nov 2021 · $67.5k | 1059 | 21× | day 1437 | -77% |
| 2022 cycle (now) | Nov 2022 · $15.8k | Oct 2025 · $124.8k | 1050 | 7.91× | day 1380 so far | -37% (to date) |
| Halving | Price | Peak day | Peak multiple | Epoch length |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2012 | $12.50 | 372 | 91× | 1319 days |
| Jul 9, 2016 | $663 | 526 | 29× | 1402 days |
| May 11, 2020 | $8.56k | 1402 | 8.53× | 1440 days |
| Apr 20, 2024 | $64.9k | 534 | 1.92× | day 864 so far |
Daily closes · blockchain.info (2010→) and Binance (2017→) · as of Sep 1, 2026.
How deep is this bear market?
Drawdown from the running all-time high. Every past cycle low sat 77–84% below the prior peak, roughly a year after it — the two numbers Cowen keeps returning to.
Bear markets (table)
| Peak | Low | Drawdown | Length |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2013 · $1.14k | Jan 2015 · $222 | -80% | 405 days |
| Dec 2017 · $19.3k | Dec 2018 · $3.24k | -83% | 363 days |
| Nov 2021 · $67.5k | Nov 2022 · $15.8k | -77% | 378 days |
| Oct 2025 · $124.8k | $78.1k so far | -37% (to date) | 330 days so far |
Monthly returns and seasonality
Calendar returns by year. The bottom rows average each month across all years — the basis for the “Q4 seasonality” argument, and where the past mid-term-year lows show up.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | +60 | +100 | -17 | +281 | +199 | +90 | -19 | -35 | -46 | -27 | -17 | +50 |
| 2012 | +26 | -11 | -2 | +3 | +3 | +29 | +38 | +18 | +15 | -13 | +16 | +8 |
| 2013 | +48 | +56 | +196 | +56 | -11 | -26 | +14 | +16 | +2 | +62 | +450 | -35 |
| 2014 | +9 | -27 | -21 | -2 | +39 | -3 | -6 | -11 | -25 | -8 | +9 | -17 |
| 2015 | -27 | +11 | -2 | -9 | +3 | +10 | +13 | -21 | +4 | +39 | +13 | +15 |
| 2016 | -12 | +15 | -4 | +10 | +16 | +21 | +3 | -12 | +5 | +15 | +5 | +31 |
| 2017 | -4 | +30 | -13 | +29 | +65 | +15 | +8 | +67 | -9 | +47 | +57 | +31 |
| 2018 | -20 | +5 | -35 | +37 | -21 | -16 | +31 | -14 | -6 | -4 | -32 | -10 |
| 2019 | -10 | +11 | +7 | +28 | +57 | +44 | -19 | 0 | -13 | +10 | -17 | -5 |
| 2020 | +30 | -9 | -25 | +34 | +10 | -4 | +24 | +3 | -8 | +28 | +43 | +47 |
| 2021 | +14 | +37 | +30 | -2 | -35 | -6 | +18 | +14 | -7 | +40 | -7 | -19 |
| 2022 | -17 | +12 | +5 | -17 | -15 | -37 | +17 | -14 | -3 | +6 | -16 | -4 |
| 2023 | +40 | +0 | +23 | +3 | -7 | +12 | -4 | -11 | +4 | +28 | +9 | +12 |
| 2024 | +1 | +44 | +17 | -15 | +11 | -7 | +3 | -9 | +7 | +11 | +37 | -3 |
| 2025 | +10 | -18 | -2 | +14 | +11 | +3 | +8 | -6 | +5 | -4 | -17 | -3 |
| 2026 | -10 | -15 | +2 | +12 | -3 | -20 | +7 | +25 | -1 | · | · | · |
| Avg | +8.5 | +15.0 | +9.9 | +28.9 | +20.1 | +6.5 | +8.4 | +0.6 | -4.8 | +15.4 | +35.4 | +6.6 |
| % green | 56% | 69% | 44% | 69% | 63% | 50% | 75% | 38% | 44% | 67% | 60% | 47% |
Month-end close vs prior month-end, 2011–2026. Historically the strongest month is Nov (avg +35.4%) and the weakest is Sep (avg -4.8%). Each past cycle low landed in Q4 of a mid-term year (Jan 2015 aside).