Bitcoin · cycle valuation
The signals
The 13 two-sided signals that make up the headline score, plus the one-sided triggers, grouped by what they measure. Each is ranked against its own entire history: 0 = where past bottoms lived, 100 = where past tops lived.
All signals
ranked 0 = historic bottom · 100 = historic topValuation · On-chain
on-chain value — around fair value
avg 44Fair Value
MVRV Z-ScoreFair Value
Market cap vs realized cap in standard deviations. Deep lows marked historic bottoms; extremes above ~7 marked every major top.
43
▲ 5
MVRV RatioFair Value
Market value / realized value. Below ~1 the average holder is underwater; above ~3.5 is historically overheated.
43
▲ 8
Net Unrealized P/L (NUPL)Fair Value
Share of supply sitting in profit. Negative = capitulation; above ~0.75 = the euphoria zone of past tops.
43
▲ 7
SOPRFair Value
Spent-output profit ratio. Sustained sub-1 = coins selling at a loss; persistently rich = heavy profit-taking near tops.
51
▼ 8
Reserve RiskValue
Long-term-holder conviction vs price. Lows flag attractive risk/reward; highs flag late-cycle complacency.
27
▲ 7
Short-Term Holder MVRVPremium
Cost-basis ratio of recent buyers. Deep lows = fresh money underwater; extremes = new buyers sitting on top-heavy gains.
73
▲ 13
Long-Term Holder MVRVFair Value
Cost-basis ratio of seasoned holders. Lows accompany bear-market bottoms; extremes accompany distribution tops.
41
▲ 12
RHODL RatioValue
Realized-cap HODL waves (1-week vs 1–2-year bands). Lows = speculation flushed out; highs = froth at cycle peaks.
30
▲ 6
Miner stress
miners — getting rich
avg 62Premium
Puell MultiplePremium
Daily miner issuance in USD vs its yearly average. Sub-0.5 marked every cycle low; above ~4 marked blow-off tops.
62
▲ 9
Hash Ribbonsbottom-onlyPremium
30-day vs 60-day hashrate momentum. Dips below 1 mark miner-capitulation bottoms; says nothing about tops.
77
▲ 41
Price & trend models
price vs models — around fair value
avg 41Fair Value
Realized PriceFair Value
Aggregate on-chain cost basis. Spot below it = the market underwater; spot far above it = historically stretched.
42
▲ 7
Balanced PriceFair Value
Realized minus transferred price. Spot near it marked cycle bottoms; a large premium marked late-cycle heat.
41
▲ 4
Mayer MultipleFair Value
Price vs its 200-day average. Readings near 0.5 marked deep bottoms; above ~2.4 marked overheated tops.
57
▼ 3
200-Week MA RatioValue
Price vs its 200-week average — the line macro bottoms touch; multiples of ~3+ accompanied past tops.
24
▼ 1
Pi Cycle Bottombottom-onlyValue
150-day EMA vs 0.745× the 471-day average. Ratios near/below 1 have pinned cycle lows; says nothing about tops.
26
▲ 8
Pi Cycle Toptop-onlyValue
111-day MA vs 2× the 350-day MA. The upward cross of 1 called the 2013, 2017 and 2021 tops within days.
29
▲ 8