How cheap is Bitcoin?
The price-level dimension: where today's price sits against the long-run regression trend, the moving-average floors every past bottom has tested, and the site's own cycle score painted onto price history.
Valuation charts
price against its historical floors and ceilings · hover for valuesPrice color-coded by cycle score
The site's own 0–100 score painted onto price history — the Cowen “risk” view. Green weeks were historically cheap, red weeks historically expensive; the pattern at past bottoms is what to compare today against.
- Deep Value 0–20
- Value 20–40
- Fair Value 40–60
- Premium 60–80
- Overheated 80–100
- <3 signals
Each week is scored exactly as the gauge scores today — every two-sided signal ranked against its full history, then averaged — using whichever signals had data that week (≥3 signals from Sep 2022). The on-chain feed's free tier only serves ~4 years of history, so before mid-2022 only the price-derived signals exist and the dots stay grey; coverage from there on fills in as the daily refresh rotates through the registry.
Logarithmic regression bands
Log price against log time since genesis, fitted through all history: the mid line is the long-run trend, the fan marks where 0.5 % / 10 % / 90 % / 99.5 % of history sat relative to it. Bear-market lows have hugged the lower green band; blow-off tops the upper red one, each cycle closer to trend than the last (Cowen's diminishing returns).
- Weekly close
- Trend (regression)
- Lower band (10%)
- Floor (0.5%)
- Upper band (90%)
- Ceiling (99.5%)
Latest close $78.1k is -43% vs the trend line ($136.5k); the lower band sits at $64.1k and the floor at $32.7k. Fit: log₁₀ price = -16.22894 + 5.60803 · log₁₀ days, OLS through 2026-09-01.
Last 12 weeks (table)
| Week end | BTC | Trend | Low | Floor (0.5%) | Upper band (90%) | Ceiling (99.5%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | $78.1k | $136.5k | $64.1k | $32.7k | $372.2k | $1.11M |
| Aug 30, 2026 | $77.7k | $136.3k | $64k | $32.6k | $371.6k | $1.11M |
| Aug 23, 2026 | $77.7k | $135.5k | $63.6k | $32.4k | $369.3k | $1.10M |
| Aug 16, 2026 | $62.9k | $134.6k | $63.2k | $32.2k | $367.1k | $1.10M |
| Aug 9, 2026 | $64.9k | $133.8k | $62.9k | $32k | $364.8k | $1.09M |
| Aug 2, 2026 | $63.5k | $133k | $62.5k | $31.8k | $362.6k | $1.08M |
| Jul 26, 2026 | $65.3k | $132.2k | $62.1k | $31.6k | $360.4k | $1.08M |
| Jul 19, 2026 | $64.7k | $131.4k | $61.7k | $31.4k | $358.2k | $1.07M |
| Jul 12, 2026 | $63.8k | $130.6k | $61.3k | $31.2k | $356k | $1.06M |
| Jul 5, 2026 | $63.6k | $129.8k | $61k | $31.1k | $353.8k | $1.06M |
| Jun 28, 2026 | $59.5k | $129k | $60.6k | $30.9k | $351.7k | $1.05M |
| Jun 21, 2026 | $63.3k | $128.2k | $60.2k | $30.7k | $349.5k | $1.05M |
Support band and the 200-week average
The 20-week SMA / 21-week EMA band is support in bull markets and resistance in bear markets; the 200-week SMA is the floor every past cycle low has tested. Price squeezed between the two is the classic pre-bottom setup.
- Weekly close
- 20W SMA / 21W EMA band
- 200W SMA
Latest weekly close $78.1k is above the band (Bull Market Support Band) at $70.1k–$71k, and +20% versus the 200-week SMA at $64.9k. Every prior macro bottom closed at or below the 200-week SMA.
Last 12 weeks (table)
| Week end | Close | 20W SMA | 21W EMA | 200W SMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | $78.1k | $70.1k | $71k | $64.9k |
| Aug 30, 2026 | $77.7k | $69.9k | $70.3k | $64.6k |
| Aug 23, 2026 | $77.7k | $69.5k | $69.6k | $64.3k |
| Aug 16, 2026 | $62.9k | $69.1k | $68.8k | $64k |
| Aug 9, 2026 | $64.9k | $69.3k | $69.4k | $63.8k |
| Aug 2, 2026 | $63.5k | $69.4k | $69.8k | $63.6k |
| Jul 26, 2026 | $65.3k | $69.9k | $70.5k | $63.3k |
| Jul 19, 2026 | $64.7k | $69.9k | $71k | $63.1k |
| Jul 12, 2026 | $63.8k | $69.9k | $71.6k | $62.9k |
| Jul 5, 2026 | $63.6k | $70.1k | $72.4k | $62.7k |
| Jun 28, 2026 | $59.5k | $70.4k | $73.2k | $62.5k |
| Jun 21, 2026 | $63.3k | $70.9k | $74.6k | $62.3k |
Weekly closes (Mon–Sun) · as of Sep 1, 2026.
2-year MA multiplier (Investor Tool)
Price below the 2-year moving average has marked every accumulation zone; price above 5× that average has marked every blow-off top. Two lines, one rule.
- Weekly close
- 2-year MA
- 2-year MA × 5
Latest close is -11% vs the 2-year MA at $87.9k — inside the historical accumulation zone.
Last 12 weeks (table)
| Week end | BTC | 2y MA | ×5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | $78.1k | $87.9k | $439.4k |
| Aug 30, 2026 | $77.7k | $87.8k | $439.1k |
| Aug 23, 2026 | $77.7k | $87.7k | $438.3k |
| Aug 16, 2026 | $62.9k | $87.5k | $437.8k |
| Aug 9, 2026 | $64.9k | $87.5k | $437.6k |
| Aug 2, 2026 | $63.5k | $87.5k | $437.3k |
| Jul 26, 2026 | $65.3k | $87.5k | $437.4k |
| Jul 19, 2026 | $64.7k | $87.5k | $437.4k |
| Jul 12, 2026 | $63.8k | $87.5k | $437.4k |
| Jul 5, 2026 | $63.6k | $87.4k | $437.1k |
| Jun 28, 2026 | $59.5k | $87.4k | $437.1k |
| Jun 21, 2026 | $63.3k | $87.4k | $437.1k |