How cheap is Bitcoin?
The price-level dimension: where today's price sits against the long-run regression trend, the moving-average floors every past bottom has tested, and the site's own cycle score painted onto price history.
Valuation charts
price against its historical floors and ceilings · hover for valuesPrice color-coded by cycle score
The site's own 0–100 score painted onto price history — the Cowen “risk” view. Green weeks were historically cheap, red weeks historically expensive; the pattern at past bottoms is what to compare today against.
- Deep Value 0–20
- Value 20–40
- Fair Value 40–60
- Premium 60–80
- Overheated 80–100
- <3 signals
Each week is scored exactly as the gauge scores today — every two-sided signal ranked against its full history, then averaged — using whichever signals had data that week (≥3 signals from Oct 2022). The on-chain feed's free tier only serves ~4 years of history, so before mid-2022 only the price-derived signals exist and the dots stay grey; coverage from there on fills in as the daily refresh rotates through the registry.
Logarithmic regression bands
Log price against log time since genesis, fitted through all history: the mid line is the long-run trend, the fan marks where 0.5 % / 10 % / 90 % / 99.5 % of history sat relative to it. Bear-market lows have hugged the lower green band; blow-off tops the upper red one, each cycle closer to trend than the last (Cowen's diminishing returns).
- Weekly close
- Trend (regression)
- Lower band (10%)
- Floor (0.5%)
- Upper band (90%)
- Ceiling (99.5%)
Latest close $82k is -42% vs the trend line ($140.6k); the lower band sits at $66.3k and the floor at $33.6k. Fit: log₁₀ price = -16.20021 + 5.59925 · log₁₀ days, OLS through 2026-10-18.
Last 12 weeks (table)
| Week end | BTC | Trend | Low | Floor (0.5%) | Upper band (90%) | Ceiling (99.5%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | $82k | $140.6k | $66.3k | $33.6k | $383.2k | $1.15M |
| Oct 11, 2026 | $83.8k | $139.8k | $65.9k | $33.4k | $380.9k | $1.14M |
| Oct 4, 2026 | $86.5k | $139k | $65.5k | $33.2k | $378.6k | $1.13M |
| Sep 27, 2026 | $84.5k | $138.1k | $65.1k | $33k | $376.3k | $1.12M |
| Sep 20, 2026 | $81.2k | $137.3k | $64.7k | $32.8k | $374k | $1.12M |
| Sep 13, 2026 | $76.8k | $136.5k | $64.4k | $32.6k | $371.8k | $1.11M |
| Sep 6, 2026 | $80.3k | $135.6k | $64k | $32.4k | $369.5k | $1.10M |
| Aug 30, 2026 | $77.7k | $134.8k | $63.6k | $32.2k | $367.3k | $1.10M |
| Aug 23, 2026 | $77.7k | $134k | $63.2k | $32k | $365.1k | $1.09M |
| Aug 16, 2026 | $62.9k | $133.2k | $62.8k | $31.8k | $362.9k | $1.08M |
| Aug 9, 2026 | $64.9k | $132.4k | $62.4k | $31.7k | $360.6k | $1.08M |
| Aug 2, 2026 | $63.5k | $131.6k | $62k | $31.5k | $358.5k | $1.07M |
Support band and the 200-week average
The 20-week SMA / 21-week EMA band is support in bull markets and resistance in bear markets; the 200-week SMA is the floor every past cycle low has tested. Price squeezed between the two is the classic pre-bottom setup.
- Weekly close
- 20W SMA / 21W EMA band
- 200W SMA
Latest weekly close $82k is above the band (Bull Market Support Band) at $71.6k–$76.2k, and +23% versus the 200-week SMA at $66.8k. Every prior macro bottom closed at or below the 200-week SMA.
Last 12 weeks (table)
| Week end | Close | 20W SMA | 21W EMA | 200W SMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | $82k | $71.6k | $76.2k | $66.8k |
| Oct 11, 2026 | $83.8k | $71.1k | $75.7k | $66.5k |
| Oct 4, 2026 | $86.5k | $70.8k | $74.8k | $66.2k |
| Sep 27, 2026 | $84.5k | $70.4k | $73.7k | $65.8k |
| Sep 20, 2026 | $81.2k | $70.2k | $72.6k | $65.5k |
| Sep 13, 2026 | $76.8k | $70.1k | $71.8k | $65.2k |
| Sep 6, 2026 | $80.3k | $70.2k | $71.2k | $64.9k |
| Aug 30, 2026 | $77.7k | $69.9k | $70.3k | $64.6k |
| Aug 23, 2026 | $77.7k | $69.5k | $69.6k | $64.3k |
| Aug 16, 2026 | $62.9k | $69.1k | $68.8k | $64k |
| Aug 9, 2026 | $64.9k | $69.3k | $69.4k | $63.8k |
| Aug 2, 2026 | $63.5k | $69.4k | $69.8k | $63.6k |
Weekly closes (Mon–Sun) · as of Oct 18, 2026.
2-year MA multiplier (Investor Tool)
Price below the 2-year moving average has marked every accumulation zone; price above 5× that average has marked every blow-off top. Two lines, one rule.
- Weekly close
- 2-year MA
- 2-year MA × 5
Latest close is -8% vs the 2-year MA at $89.2k — inside the historical accumulation zone.
Last 12 weeks (table)
| Week end | BTC | 2y MA | ×5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | $82k | $89.2k | $445.9k |
| Oct 11, 2026 | $83.8k | $89k | $445.1k |
| Oct 4, 2026 | $86.5k | $88.8k | $444.1k |
| Sep 27, 2026 | $84.5k | $88.6k | $443.1k |
| Sep 20, 2026 | $81.2k | $88.4k | $442.1k |
| Sep 13, 2026 | $76.8k | $88.2k | $441.2k |
| Sep 6, 2026 | $80.3k | $88k | $440.2k |
| Aug 30, 2026 | $77.7k | $87.8k | $439.1k |
| Aug 23, 2026 | $77.7k | $87.7k | $438.3k |
| Aug 16, 2026 | $62.9k | $87.5k | $437.8k |
| Aug 9, 2026 | $64.9k | $87.5k | $437.6k |
| Aug 2, 2026 | $63.5k | $87.5k | $437.3k |